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Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2017 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.6% for 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, unchanged from the previous survey. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in the SPF, referred to 2022) were revised upwards from 1.8% to 1.9%. SPF respondents’ expectations for real

growth in euro area GDP averaged 2.2%, 1.9% and 1.7% for 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively, representing upward revisions of 0.3, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. Average longer-term expectations remained unchanged at 1.6%.

 

Unemployment rate expectations were again revised downwards at all horizons, such that the downward sloping trajectory steepened further, with point forecasts averaging 9.1%, 8.6% and 8.2% for 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. The average point forecast for the longer-term unemployment rate was revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%.